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Municipal Election 2014


Poll puts Rob Ford, John Tory and Olivia Chow in a virtual dead heat

(Image: Ontario Chamber of Commerce)

John Tory. (Image: Ontario Chamber of Commerce)

With the 2014 mayoral campaign officially underway, the time has come for a pre-election ritual: a cavalcade of opinion polls measuring relative levels of support for each candidate.

This early in the game, it’s wise to be wary of polls. The candidates haven’t had time to introduce themselves to the public, so much of what’s being measured is name recognition. (Back in 2003, David Miller did terribly in the polls until just before he was elected mayor.) All we can hope for at this point in time is a reasonably accurate snapshot of voter sentiment right now.

According to the Star, the campaign’s first Forum Research poll doesn’t indicate a clear frontrunner. In a hypothetical race between Rob Ford, John Tory and Olivia Chow (who is expected to declare her candidacy soon), the 1,310 residents polled were split between Tory and Ford at 33 per cent each, while Chow captured 32 per cent. In a race among only the candidates who have already filed their nomination papers—that is, Ford, Tory, Karen Stintz and David Soknacki—Tory edges Ford out 39 per cent to 33 per cent, with the other candidates trailing far behind. With Chow in the mix, she and Ford tie at 31 per cent, while Tory gets 27 per cent. (The poll’s margin of error is three percentage points.)

The Star points out that Ford’s numbers aren’t actually as comfortable as they appear: 50 per cent of respondents said they wouldn’t so much as consider voting for him, meaning his level of support is probably almost as high as it can get. If that’s true, it has nowhere to go but down.

  • Jillian

    please olivia, we need you! please run!

  • Robert J. Hoshowsky

    Chow will NOT run! The woman is no fool, and will not give up her salary and pension as an MP.

  • Leftyfluff

    Good golly…one can’t trust a bent poll bought by the Star!

  • Richard Burns

    Ironic, here in the states even Rob Ford would be considered a kenyansocialistmarxistmuslimterroristtraitor by our teabaggers.

  • Roy

    It’s still a shock that Ford is above 10% with all his drunken stupors and knowledge of Jamaican crack dealer lingo.

  • Roy

    How do you figure she has to give up her pension?

  • Dawna Tracey-Armstrong

    I doubt her personal finances have anything to do with why she hasn’t entered the race.

  • Roy

    Exactly. Robert above is badly informed.
    Her pension will stay intact regardless, and the new mayor’s salary will make up for an m.p.’s salary

  • KidWunder

    Looks like it will come down to Tory vs. Chow. All other candidates will bow out except Ford. There is possibly enough anti-left sentiment remaining from the last election to keep Chow from winning.

  • Steve Bako

    Toronto bozo citizens will vote back in Ford.. Y’all smoking crack like ya mayor and will bring the bozo back in…. SMH… Toronto.. the forever laughing stock of Canada.. oh sorry.. THE WORLD!!!

  • MrsJones

    No one will come close to 50%. Ford will win on his 40-45% and the rest will split the vote.